Brexit

Northwinds

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#21
Right for the UK Treasury

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-impact-of-eu-membership-and-the-alternatives

In short

This document assesses continued UK membership of the EU against the three existing alternative models:

  • membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), like Norway
  • a negotiated bilateral agreement, such as that between the EU and Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
  • World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership without any form of specific agreement with the EU, like Russia or Brazil
The Treasury’s analysis shows that the UK would be permanently poorer if it left the EU and adopted any of these models. Productivity and GDP per person would be lower in all these alternative scenarios, as the costs would substantially outweigh any potential benefit of leaving the EU. The analysis finds that the annual loss of GDP per household under the three alternatives after 15 years would be:

  • £2,600 in the case of EEA membership
  • £4,300 in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement
  • £5,200 in the case of WTO membership
The negative impact on GDP would also result in substantially weaker tax receipts, significantly outweighing any potential gain from reduced financial contributions to the EU. After 15 years, even with savings from reduced contributions to the EU, receipts would be £20 billion a year lower in the central estimate of the EEA, £36 billion a year lower for the negotiated bilateral agreement and £45 billion a year lower for the WTO alternative
 

BlazeES

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#23
The net saving is £10 billion

By johnredwood | Published: March 1, 2016
Various lower estimates for the UK’s saving from leaving the EU have been put about.
Let me remind people where the £10 billion figure comes from.
It is the last official ONS figure for a whole year, 2014, published in the Pink Book.
It is based on the following figures:


UK Contributions into EU

Vat contribution £2388 m

GNI contribution (based on recently revised up GDP) £13762 m

Customs duties £2949 m

Total Payments (inc small items) £19107 m


Payments to UK (returns)

Fontainebleau abatement (Thatcher rebate) £4416 m

UK charge for collection of customs duties etc £741 m

Agricultural receipts £2309 m

European Social fund £221m

Capital receipts (universities, regional etc) £1478 m


Other receipts £70 m


Total Receipts £9235 m



NET ONE YEAR COST OF EU £9872 m

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/03/01/the-net-saving-is-10-billion/


The resultant EU relationship will be a hybrid with the UK wielding much financial market strength and precedence.
Keep in mind that the UK stuck with the Sterling.
Next to Germany, the UK has one of the most diverse economies in Europe.
Also keep in mind that the UK has been the 5th largest economy in the world. When the currency fluctuations settle out, it will continue to be so.
S h ! t like that matters ...

Most importantly, leaving the EU was about sovereignty, safety and immigration control returning to the homeland.
Otherwise stated as ... 'F u c k Brussels'.

The Governor spokesman for the Bank of England came out this morning and detailed out how the UK is and has been prepared
for today's eventuality. Again, they were one-foot-in since the beginning (or one-foot-out, depending how you look at it).
Pretty smart if you ask me.
The socialist EU NWO experiment has been thwarted.

 
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laatsch55

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#24
Economies should never be manipulated by speculation, you would think the World would learn


That's what IPO's are all about, speculating this new company will make it, if it weren't for speculators, we'd be selling oil for 10/bbl.
 

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#25
Read this Ron....


[h=6]Posted Jun 24, 2016 by Martin Armstrong[/h]



The pound sterling had a smashing day ranging between 15016 and 13226; penetrating the 2009 low of 13508 as well as the 2001 low of 13680. That leaves the prior low that formed in 1985 of 10520 on the cash (103 futures). This is rather important for it implies that we should see that test of the 1985 low as soon as 2017. A year-end closing below 14050 will signal that should follow course. Keep in mind that our model has been projecting a significant dollar rally and the weakening of the EU will make that happen.

We have two incredible important numbers coming into focus for the closing of June: 13660 and we also have a Quarterly Bearish at 13680 and 14280. Obviously, if we close June below 13660, we should expect the pound to decline sharply in the months ahead.
On the Weekly level, a closing beneath 14000 will keep the pound in a bearish position. A merely closing beneath 14300 today will also signal that the pound is weak. There will be bearish sentiment, but this will begin to subside as people start to see that the EU cannot be sustained without the UK.
The European Union peaked back in 2004. It is done – just stick a fork in it. The arrogance of Brussels and their anti-democratic approach to force their elitist views upon the people is coming back to haunt them. Unless Brussels reforms, we will see the collapse of the entire EU structure right down to the euro.
 

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#26
[h=6]Posted Jun 24, 2016 by Martin Armstrong[/h]



Exactly on our cyclical model, the UK voted to leave the EU (52% to 48%) in a historic referendum after 43 years (half 8.6). David Cameron has announced he will resign as prime minister in October, and all one can say is good riddance. Cameron is stepping down despite the fact that 84 Eurosceptic Tory MPs signed a letter calling on David Cameron to continue as prime minister whatever the result of the referendum. That was just a joke for Cameron betrayed his own country. It would have been inconceivable for Cameron to remain as prime minister after making the biggest political decision of his life that has been proven to be spectacularly wrong.
Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said that voters have “spoken clearly†and the government’s job is to “get on with that decision, protecting the economy and doing all we can to get the best outcome for Britain.†This is the best decision for Britain; otherwise, Brussels, which has become the sinking Titanic, will drag the country down. The attempt by Brussels to extinguish democracy with its arrogant attitude that the elite know better will now begin to set in throughout Europe. Already, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi tweeted: “We have to change (the EU) to make it more human and more just, but Europe is our home, it’s our future.â€
The pound fell to its lowest level in 31 years on exaggerated panic. Europe is nothing without Britain and NATO will certain not change. Britain provided the military backbone for Europe. This is merely about the UK gaining its independence. The United States would NEVER allow its laws to be written in a dictatorial manner by the European Union.



Nigel Farage told supporters that June 23 should go down as “our Independence Day.†Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon sadly said Scotland contributed significantly to the “remain†vote across the UK, and the Scottish people “see their future as part of the EU.†So we have yet to see Scotland leave the UK, but this time it will quickly discover that the EU is crumbling.
The Act of Union that formed the UK was under Queen Ann in 1707. Applying the 309.6-year cycle brings us to 2016.6. Therefore, we may indeed see an independent Scotland, but it will soon find out it joined the sinking ship. Meanwhile, in Ireland, Sinn Fein said Britain’s vote to leave the EU has “very significant implications†for Ireland, and it called for a referendum on a united Ireland.

Of course, there are those in denial. Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern warned Britain’s exit would harm the other nations. “I do not fear a domino effect,†Kern said, yet our model does show this will unfold. Kern continued, “Europe will lose status and significance in the world because of Britain’s step. The long-term economic effects will also be felt for some time.â€
Meanwhile, the Estonian Prime Minister Taavi Roivas said Europe must “work hard†to protect the EU’s unity and that Britain’s departure was a “great loss.†Article 50 of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty has been overlooked, but that, effectively, is the EU exit button that allows a country to start formally withdrawing from the European Union. Once Britain has activated this clause, it has two years to negotiate its departure with the remaining 27 members of the bloc. Among the terms to be discussed are trade tariffs and freedom of movement.
 

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#27
[h=6]Posted Jun 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong[/h]

There are 11 million workers in Britain who assumed they had great pensions. The British Steel Pension Scheme is proposing to break its pension promises to its 130,000 members because they are losing money. Tata Steel is looking to sell its holding in its UK plants over the next few months, and that means that the £15bn pension scheme, that would normally be put into the general Pension Protection Fund, has been the slush fund for failed companies. So in other words, what they thought was a guarantee, will be nothing of the sort. Once government takes over anything, it just bleeds money.
 

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#28
[h=6]Posted Jun 24, 2016 by Martin Armstrong[/h] Video Player

00:00

00:00
COMMENT #1: Marty, Socrates just beat every polling organization out there. The bank I work at conducted its own poll and said remain has it. Gold fell and bounced off of 1206 you said was the line in the sand and screamed up and bounced off the monthly bullish reversal which was your line above. You get the numbers and the trend and you do all this without personal opinion. This was an amazing job. Your computer is unbeatable just like the IBM machine that beat the greatest chess champions.
Well done.
COMMENT #2:
Mr Armstrong,

I wanted to congratulate you and your team – plus your computers – for the great job accomplished about Brexit. You were right once again. Brexit happened.

I have to say that i don’t still understand why, as you stated, your models are “bearish on UKâ€. This is why you said yes Brexit should take place but no, it can’t possibly for the outcome is negative.

You were wondering if the vote will be rigged – which it had as we know but not enough – for you expected some civil unrest and an economic decline.

Curiously enough, Tony Blair’s reaction was puzzling. He stated that “nobody should rush†to effectively start the separation process voters decided upon. Frankly, it looks fishy :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H86as_2Jr0g

You stated Cameron had to resign for he could not stay in office after what he did. Well, let me tell you, when it comes to dirty tricks, french politcians are world class contestants. In 2005, when the french referendum about the EU constitution took place, the acting president Chirac flatly said that the referendum was “not about himâ€. Sarkozy said that the referendeum was worthless for if elected, he could pass it through the parliament. And did. Hollande would not resign even if only 11% of voters back him.

Cameron had something left from Churchill and Maggy. Something you find in Britain, the oldest european democracy along with Swiss, that you’ll never find in France, home of Louis XIV’s absolute monarchy.

For whatever the reason, Cameron accepted to hold the scottish and EU referendum. Yes his bet was that he would win both. But he still had the “balls†to challenge his opponents. “Balls†is a word that has vanished from the french dictionary long time ago.

In Madrid, they just say a referendum in Catalonia is “illegal†and that’s it.

For the record, the former french president of the big businesses association said this morning : “Cameron decision to hold a referendum is irresponsible, Merkel and Hollande need to act quicklyâ€. In continental Europe, even the republican system is now a complete joke, let alone democracy. The people voice is seen as the one of irresponsability.

As you said : “We know better, go back to workâ€.

Regards.



COMMENT #3: Marty, I bought the gold at 1203 and used your 1206 as the stop for the close. I then sold it against your monthly at 1360 and reversed. You just paid off my house. Your numbers are astonishing and Socrates’ forecast for BREXIT was unbelievable. Nobody can do this. I do not know how long it will take people to open their eyes to what you have proven. You are indeed the Forecaster. Will see you in Orlando.

Spectacular


REPLY: It is very gratifying to see Socrates beat the odds. Yes, people do not appreciate what can really be accomplished. Analysis is still very much in the dark ages and people try to become famous for being some sort of genius with forecasts based solely upon personal opinion. Now others are trying to name a flat trading model after a Greek to pretend they have something, which is just a joke. The cost to build this system far exceeded anything imaginable. It cannot be accomplished with a few thousand and a year. It requires a vast database and the ability to create machine learning systems, which few programmers even dare to tackle.
You are right. Deep Blue was the chess-playing computer developed by IBM. It is known for being the first computer chess-playing system to win both a chess game and a chess match against a reigning world champion under regular time controls. That proved a machine can out-think humans. Socrates has accomplished the same. The forecast it has made for the long-term over the next decade will blow everyone’s mind. BREXIT is just one confirming step in that course of direction.
They closed polls early, rigged the game with mail-in ballots, and were prepared to follow Austria and stack the referendum. But the vote was too overwhelming to prevent. Now we have elections in US, Germany, and France. The world is going to look a lot different come 2017. You cannot do this with an “I think†analysis. It is far too complicated for one person to rationalize and monitor everything, everywhere, all the time. Orlando will be, perhaps, our best conference ever. It is all coming together rather nicely. We will be providing proprietary tablets this year to all attendees of the 2016 WEC with some proprietary programs.
 

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#29
Does this mean the rest of the Spears family can leave Louisiana?


by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 24 Jun 2016

-------

The British people, our special friends and allies, deserve our full support following their sovereign and considered decision to leave the European Union.

The people spoke from their hearts and with conviction. They considered deep and critical issues never discussed by the international elites. Their strong vote arose not out of fear and pique but out of love for country and pride of place. Their experience with a distant government in Brussels was given a long and fair chance to succeed. In the end, however, they concluded that the costs outweighed the benefits. Often, Britain makes changes that precede U. S. action. The Thatcher movement preceded the Reagan revolution. Both were victories for the people over outdated and corrupt forces. Both were achieved against powerful and determined establishment forces. Both resulted in historic and positive periods in their nation’s history.

Now it’s our time. The period of the nation state has not ended. No far off global government or union can command the loyalty of a people like their own country. Vague unions have no ability to call on the people to sacrifice for the common good. They seem incapable of making decisions and when they do, they have difficulty executing the decision.

Far better to celebrate the wonder and proven worth of good nation states and to work hard to use that foundation to build harmonious political and trading relations among the nations. This is the best basis for peace and prosperity.

In negotiations and relationships, national leaders should first ensure they have protected the safety and legitimate interests of their own people. This principle has been eroded and Brexit is a warning for America. Our British friends have sent the message loud and clear.

The interests of powerful international corporations, media, special interests, and leftist international forces are not coterminous with those of our people. This we must understand. The ultimate interest that our government is legally and morally bound to serve is that of our people.

Just as in the U.K., our November presidential election presents a stark contrast. The establishment forces, the global powers, are promoting their values and their interests. They want to erode borders, rapidly open America’s markets to foreign produced goods, while having little interest in advancing America’s ability to sell abroad. These forces have zero interest in better job opportunities and higher wages for our citizens.

It has been known for years that the European Union has often served as a barrier to its members taking action that would serve their own interests. Perhaps nothing proves this more definitively than the current migrant crisis, where the EU has clearly been part of the problem, not the solution.

And, consider the promotion of radical trade policies that erode the power of the people to control their lives. Millions upon millions of dollars from around the globe are being spent to get America to agree to the massive, twelve-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership. While sold as a trade deal, in reality, the TPP is a Trojan Horse for yet another sovereignty-eroding global pact. If implemented, it would create a new governing body that would exercise power and make decisions that the United States Congress would be effectively powerless to block. Like the EU, each nation gets one vote. Brunei and Vietnam get one vote as does the President of the United States.

We must remember that the European Union began as a seemingly benign economic agreement, and we must not forget, that as Secretary of State, with negotiating responsibility for the TPP, Hillary Clinton promoted it and called it the ‘gold standard’ for a trade deal. That should give us all pause. This sovereignty eroding trade deal is in perfect accord with her globalist agenda.

Too many politicians and pundits here in America have been woefully oblivious to, or in some cases complicit in, what is going on around us. The failed European Union experiment, and Great Britain’s rejection of it, must serve as a wake-up call for all of us in America.

I applaud yesterday’s strong and patriotic action taken by America’s special friend, retaking its independence. I know that moving forward the deep and historic ties between Great Britain and America will grow ever stronger. I believe the American people too will choose independence this November.
 

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#30
[h=6]Posted Jun 6, 2016 by Martin Armstrong[/h]
COMMENT: MA,
Someone said they sold the euro at 116 with a stop loss at 11705 and sold gold at 1305 with a stop above last year’s high. They earn a lot. But they not mention that your crude oil forecast is also correct!
Feb 28, 2016
A daily closing above $33.60 on Monday will be a warning that we may yet see a rally to everyone’s shock and dismay.
Mar 17, 2016
close March above the February high of 34.69, then we have a shot of more than a one-month knee-jerk reaction high. Then we can look for a possible three-month rally into May. The two primary targets are at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for a rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.
Now it is the end of May, and reach $49, will the rise trend continous? And is the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area will it be a typo of 59-60?
Thanks
C.Y.

REPLY: Oil is playing out within the scope of everything. We elected the two Weekly Bullish Reversals in the week of May 9 at the $45 level. Our first target for the reaction high was June, and we had two Panic Cycles for April and May back-to-back. After June, we saw September. Yes, we warned with the February closing that everything held on our numbers, which was implying a rally was coming in the wind. In March, we elected the Weekly Bullish at 38.40. That is when we warned the next target would be 45-49: “The two primary targets are at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for a rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.â€
The numbers are always the numbers. They will beat my personal opinion every time. You simply move from one to the next. We have just witnessed gold do the same thing with our 1206 number. It crashed last week after falling to 1201, despite electing a Weekly Bearish of 1225 the week before. However, it held the Bearish Reversal. Whenever this happens, the market is telling you something. So what will not go down, goes back up and vice versa.
There are way too many markets for me to comment on all the time. I am looking to begin fading into the sunset after unleashing Socrates. It takes a computer to track everything and correlate the entire world. Humans are incapable of monitoring everything and computer models that people sell are FLAT MODELS, meaning they analyze each market in isolation. That may work for a while, but they always blow up because they can never see the wildcard coming from outside that market.




As we approach June, we must respect that May was a perfect three-month reaction that slightly exceeded $50 but failed to close above the Monthly Bullish in the $49 level. Therefore, caution is now advisable. If the market wanted to continue a bullish rally, it could have closed above our number, as it was right there, but did not. Therefore, we should be on guard for a reversal of fortune. Yes, you can still exceed the May high and suck in more people, but that may not be sustainable. So now, we must refocus on the bearish reversals beneath the market. For now, a weekly close below 4320 will signal a decline is developing. However, a weekly closing below $46 may produce the same result if we make a new high in the coming week of June 6.
By the way, it was not a typo. The formidable resistance zone is in the $69-$70 area. But that will take a continued rally into September. Without a monthly closing above a Monthly Bullish (even one), that does not become likely.
 

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#31
The fall of the 4th Reich !!!!!
:happy3::happy3::happy3:
Congratulations to Frau Merkel and her puppets !!!!
Ciao
Marco
 

Dazen1

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#34
(Apologies for not being an active member these last few months).

It has been interesting to read the comments in this thread.

I voted to leave.

The main consideration was sovereignty. I wanted the UK to determine it's own affairs - for better or worse.

Immigration was a massive issue too and was arguably the one subject that had the largest effect on the electorate. Many advocating withdrawal were being painted by some 'remainers' as being xenophobic, stupid and having a misplaced nostalgia for a Britain before globalisation.

The economic case for staying in the EU was compelling. Unfortunately, the scaremongering was so ridiculous that it became laughable.

It was quite a messy campaign. Both sides spoke utter bollocks at various intervals - but in the end democracy prevailed.

From a personal perspective, I'm thrilled with the result.
 

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#35
(Apologies for not being an active member these last few months).

It has been interesting to read the comments in this thread.

I voted to leave.

The main consideration was sovereignty. I wanted the UK to determine it's own affairs - for better or worse.

Immigration was a massive issue too and was arguably the one subject that had the largest effect on the electorate. Many advocating withdrawal were being painted by some 'remainers' as being xenophobic, stupid and having a misplaced nostalgia for a Britain before globalisation.

The economic case for staying in the EU was compelling. Unfortunately, the scaremongering was so ridiculous that it became laughable.

It was quite a messy campaign. Both sides spoke utter bollocks at various intervals - but in the end democracy prevailed.

From a personal perspective, I'm thrilled with the result.
I am thrilled with the result as well, I stayed up very late watching the early returns coming in. UK Sovereignty is much better than being controlled by Brussels (which is I am sure even worse than being controlled by Washington DC).
 

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#36
Hi all ,
it's very easy :
many people ( probably 50% ) consider Germany the real problem , because
every law is tailored for Germany .
Fruit , vegetables , lamps , fish and moreless everything are regulated
in very strong way but always for German interest .
EU parliament could be considered like a Soviet .
After 1989 European countries helped Germany for reunification
and after in 2001 we saved their banks .
And now they thank us with our poverty .
Brexit is a logical result , but I think it will be the fall of UK .
Also London would remain in Europe .
In French Marie Le Penne and other parties in all european countries
would leave EU but at present they have no sufficient power and
overall we have Euro that means that these countries could be
destroyed in every moment .
To be honest we are fucked .
Ciao
Marco
 

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#38
Interesting turn out by age category ...

turn out.jpg


I wouldn't be shocked to see the U S November results to be similar
now that Bernie Sanders has been told to shut up.
 

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#39
People will always have the power, when voter turnout is 72%.......

Daren, what do you think of Nigel Farange??

Marco, are you favorable to Le Penn??
 

marcok

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#40
No Lee ,
absolutely no . She is something like Donald Trump . It's very easy to talk , but it's very difficult
to manage power and democracy .
It's too late to destroy Europe , it's necessary to modify Europe soon ,
limiting German power .The implosion of Europe would be a 9 degree quake
for the world .
The latest mistake : ASAP there will be a summit in BERLIN between
Merkel , Holland ( puppet # 1 ) and Renzi ( puppet #2 ) .
In BERLIN not in Bruxelles : any doubt about the 4th Reich ?
Ciao
Marco
 
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