Oil on the (downward slide) upward climb...

[laatsch55]

Cool....

 

[Web Police]

No. 45 was not the bottom. As the EU continues to collapse due to the EURO crisis global industrial output will continue to fall and with it demand for energy. There are really no factors in favor of rising prices for quite some time Tony. The little ups and downs you're seeing now are (I think) traders adjusting their positions. There is a lot of ANXIETY in the energy industry right now. The layoffs are starting. More rigs are getting stacked every day. The only drilling that will be taking place are key core sweet spots and those leases facing a drilling deadline. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
Baker-Hughes laid off 9,000, Schlumberger laid off 7,000 and these are just the big boys you hear about. The Saudi's are insisting on keeping or increasing their market share and believe that they, being an "efficient" producer should be the last to shut in production, meaning the sharp rise in American shale operations have them spooked---big time.
China has been leasing every VLCC ( very large crude carrier) that is available to buy all it can on the spot market while it's cheap.....BUT!!!!......they can only store so much. That also contributes to the problem , when you have more production than can be refined or stored, pretty soon you run out of storage. After that point is reached you can't sell oil...PERIOD. When there is no place to go with it you stop producing it. When you stop producing it you damn sure don't drill for more except in those instances noted above. Very few companies have pockets deep enough to drill, complete , frac, and set production equipment and then wait to start producing.
There are also rules involved on federal leases that essentially say "produce it or plug it".

A good thing, from my point of view, is the devastation of those economies of countries that rely mostly on oil revenues for their budgets. Specifically those that nationalized the energy industry and confiscated all private wells, fields, equipment, rigs and infrastructure and are incapable of running it efficiently enough to compete. Venezuela comes to mind. They "stole" every asset any private oil company had that was operating in Venezuela at the time. Most were American majors. Venezuela does not have the engineers needed to operate nor explore to keep production climbing, not to mention the technology intensive secondary production methods.
Venezuela has already sent their energy minister to the gulf states to plead their case from fellow Opec members, to which he is being told tough shit.

In my opinion there are a lot of things going wrong in the world at the same time and in the near future you will see a GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEPRESSION that will make 1929 look like a picnic. Goverments are bleeding their people dry with more and more taxes, fees and fines and it will only get worse as the economies turn down more. It's not the fault of the evil one percenters , it's the total incompetence of governments who have no idea how a global economy is interrelated. There will be a total confidence loss in the EU of the EURO, greece will bail out of the EU causing a domino effect on the rest of the EU. Global capital will start leaving Europe ( it's alrady leaving Russia) and will flee to the last safe place, America, driving the dollar higher against all other currencies , causing more defaulting of international loans in dollars due to them trying to be paid back in currencies on a slide compared to the dollar. Look what just happened in Sweden. The Swiss franc was "pegged" to the EURO, last month the Swiss "unpegged" it, it's value immediately rose against the Euro. A lot of mortgages in Europe were made in Swiss Francs, and are going to be tried to be paid back in currencies falling in value compared to the Swiss Franc. The EU was destined to fail because a common currency was not tied to a common debt....

BTW, if you have any investments in bonds, god help you...that's the next bubble to burst....even Germany could not sell it's Gov't bonds in the last auction a week ago. It's gonna get bad folks.


30.00 dollar oil will look good to me before this is over....

Do you echo these thoughts? You really think it will get that bad? I better start hoarding bullets, toilet paper and canned food.

 

[laatsch55]

By this time next year we'll have a damn good idea Web. But yes, I think it's going to get bad. I'm an optomistic guy usually John....but man it's a perfect storm for bad....

 

[Web Police]

By this time next year we'll have a damn good idea Web. But yes, I think it's going to get bad. I'm an optomistic guy usually John....but man it's a perfect storm for bad....

Hmm Ok, I subscribe to the theory that nothing is ever as good as it seems and nothing is ever as bad as it seems. I think if things take a downward trend it wont be till after the new president takes office in 2017.

Making note to stock up on bullets canned food and toilet paper.

 

[derek92994]

Assholes have gone from 99 cents per litre to $1.19, absolute rip off, douche bags.

 

[derek92994]

Correction, Some are still as low as 98 cents, they will be the ones getting the business. The big dogs putting it up to 1.19 are doing it because they can.

 

[Fishoz]

Up .17 since this morning. $2.39/gal now. Was $1.97 last Thursday.

 

[orange]

As low as $1.979 today...our area is almost always the last to drop or rise.

The last time it was this low, I owned a car...ten years ago.

 

[BlazeES]

The propaganda machine hard at work:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102477074

Domestic storage is at all time highs.
Even today, WTI is ~ $51 a barrel.

Out on the left coast, gasoline prices are calibrated to where they were mid-last year in many areas
when oil was between $90-100 a barrel. Damn near or right at $4 a gallon in the biggest hot-spots like San Fran.

My watering hole is at $3.21 today, with many of the consumer oriented ones
pretty much at $3.29 ... and the big name brand stations 20-40 cents higher.

Strikes.
Fires.
Refinery conversions.
Amounts to about a $1 increase since E-O-January in my neck of the woods.

R O F L M A

 

[orange]

Ontario, OR

LOW: $2.25 CASH ONLY

HIGH: $2.39

MOST ARE $2.37

Yes, that doggone refinery fire DOES matter. The others are shut down to witch over to blends for the warm stretches and travel season (as if there were a real cold snap) and this is a part of life for the industry.

You guys also have clean air laws that require more stuff in the refining process and can't import from outside the area.

SERIOUSLY.

But you have Disneyland.

 

[BlazeES]

Tell those great prices to your friends out in Portland, Eugene and Medford.

Ontario, OR

LOW: $2.25 CASH ONLY

HIGH: $2.39

MOST ARE $2.37

Yes, that doggone refinery fire DOES matter. The others are shut down to witch over to blends for the warm stretches and travel season (as if there were a real cold snap) and this is a part of life for the industry.

You guys also have clean air laws that require more stuff in the refining process and can't import from outside the area.

SERIOUSLY.

But you have Disneyland.

 

[Web Police]

Convenient time for refinery fire and maintenance. Prices are up to $2.39 to $2.49 a gallon here after bottoming out at $1.89 to $1.99.


I could change the title of the thread to Upward Climb?

 

[laatsch55]

Not for crude...and storage is at an all time high......487 million barrels are in storage....NOT including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve...

There is an outfit that flys over most of the large storage tank farms in Cushing, Ok and the Gulf Coast and they have con firmed most are 80% or MORE filled...

 

[orange]

Tell those great prices to your friends out in Portland, Eugene and Medford.

We are closer to the than they are to the source of the fuel.

Hell, I don't know, but we ain't wall to wall peeps yet and Siskiyou, Jefferson counties are a lot closer to Northern California. If you look beyond Boise, both the business world and media tend to lead to Salt Lake.

 

[Web Police]

Not for crude...and storage is at an all time high......487 million barrels are in storage....NOT including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve...

There is an outfit that flys over most of the large storage tank farms in Cushing, Ok and the Gulf Coast and they have con firmed most are 80% or MORE filled...

Most consumers don't mind paying prices vbased on crude prices. It is when the refineries jack the retail prices around blaming mitigating circumstances that we get our shorts in a bunch. Probably would be a good idea for the Feds and State Govs to allow building a bunch or refineries. Can you image what would happen if the terrorists decided to blow up 10 refineries at the same time?

 

[laatsch55]

tHAT'D SUCK....

 

[Web Police]

tHAT'D SUCK....

With only 139 or so refineries operation that could put a significant dent in our supply of end products. The price of gas would spike and people wouldn't be able to get enough, then the demand for oil would probably drop and the price of eveything else would go up. People would stop spending on unecessary things driving the unemployment numbers through the roof. Probably Mad Max USA at that time.

 

[laatsch55]

It'd be a sad state of affairs wouldn't it....

 

[Web Police]

Yes it certainly would. You could toss the countries history out the window as people would revolt. You have to toss em all in Fema camps.

 

[laatsch55]

And overseas prisons...