Oil on the (downward slide) upward climb...
- Thread starter BlazeES
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- Halfbiass...Electron Herder and Backass Woof
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Below $77 this morning. Saudi Arabia has announced lower pricing to the United States. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-oil-price-cut-takes-market-by-surprise-2014-11-04
Saudi Arabia lowering prices to the U.S. market?
Strange days indeed...
Saudi Arabia lowering prices to the U.S. market?
Strange days indeed...
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Because of increased domestic production. A play of the Saudis to slow down our exploration efforts. They know damn well our production costs are around 80.00 per barrel. So they see a chance to hasten the price decline below 70.00. That's the price where rigs will start being idled if a company can.lay me down they will. Some won't as all leases have to be drilled before a certain time has passed. Most are 5 year leases so production has to be achieved so they don't lose the leases. Once a lease has production.infill drilling will only proceed if it's profitable. Low oil prices are a two edged sword for long term energy independence...
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Valuable insight from the sensei !
I hear conflicting info about what constitutes the domestic "tipping point", depending on where I go for information.
There are some that believe (I assume based upon some reasonable metrics...) that somewhere between $60 and $70 is where
domestic exploration & production gets hit. I'm no expert on this so I will defer to guys like you. I think $2.50/gallon is a sweet spot
national average (Reg Unleaded) for the economy. If that can be supported without damaging all the domestic production,
I think we're golden. If you reverse engineer pricing back to say the nineties, that puts a gallon at round about a buck fiddy (in 1992 dollars).
People near or at the minimum wage earnings level need fuel to be at more modest levels like this IMHO.
Having you for "direct" and real feedback to what's really going on in the production trenches is truly a blessing.
This will be no doubt educational as we move into the new year...
Oh, btw, get out there and vote people !
I hear conflicting info about what constitutes the domestic "tipping point", depending on where I go for information.
There are some that believe (I assume based upon some reasonable metrics...) that somewhere between $60 and $70 is where
domestic exploration & production gets hit. I'm no expert on this so I will defer to guys like you. I think $2.50/gallon is a sweet spot
national average (Reg Unleaded) for the economy. If that can be supported without damaging all the domestic production,
I think we're golden. If you reverse engineer pricing back to say the nineties, that puts a gallon at round about a buck fiddy (in 1992 dollars).
People near or at the minimum wage earnings level need fuel to be at more modest levels like this IMHO.
Having you for "direct" and real feedback to what's really going on in the production trenches is truly a blessing.
This will be no doubt educational as we move into the new year...
Oh, btw, get out there and vote people !
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The oil business here in the Rockies is not the same as most places in the Nation Tony. We have a fairly steep discount paid to us for being in the Powdre River Basin of upwards of 25.00 a barrel. Large independents that move large amounts of oil have some leverage with crude buyers and are less affected. Being a small producer you are at the mercy of the crude buyer.
Nationally, most new production is achieved through expensive horizontal drilling and very large and expensive frac jobs. The average 10,000 feet down and 8,000 feet sideways well here to the completion point costs between 6 and 8 million dollars. Based on the average production of said wells the cost to pay for that well and be able to cash flow the preceding wells is around 80.00 per barrel. Some operators will be less and some more..just depends. In the Bakken in North Dakota it's real similiar, except for the production rates. North Dakota has better initial production rates AND there is another formation called the Sanish/Three forks that appears to be present where ever the Bakken is that is 200 feet uphole from the Bakken that they estimate holds as much and probably more than the Bakken and has similiar resevoir characteristics. Meaning that production is already behind pipe and no exploration or acquisition or lease hold expenses need be incurred to exzploit it. There have been enough completions in the Sanish/Three Forks to establish the validity of those claims. It is the ability to now drill, frac and produce shale formations that brought about our recernt boost in domestic production, but it's expensive compared to vertical sandstone drilling and production. North Dakota alone now has the reserves to affect GLOBAL OIL PRICES. That's what has finally brought the Saudis around. Years ago their target was 75.00 a barrel, even now that will be the magic number. That will not kill off all exploration like I said before, but what is happening now is good ol supply and demand in the oil industry that has happened since it began. The price hits a threshold that supports increased R & D or riskier exploration and discoveries are made or processes are invented and here we go again. The boom and bust cycle....once again. That , and with the Gov't owned foreign oil companies thrown in the mix and it can get strange. It's no wonder the average Joe thinks most oil companies are evil and manipulative. Oil is different from most industries as certain countries treat their reserves as a national security asset and that can also distort the market. Look at our ban on oil exports, if it's not repealed our domestic exploration industry will soon outpace demand and 80.00 oil will be a distant dream....When we firts got in the oil business in 1996 oil was trading between 17-20 per barrel. Two months after going all in as Marlin Oil we were selling oil for 8.75 per barrel. It was a rough two years and ones I would not like to repeat. It was touch and go, but we made it and learned a very valuable lesson-----"Don't nothin ever stay the same"....
Nationally, most new production is achieved through expensive horizontal drilling and very large and expensive frac jobs. The average 10,000 feet down and 8,000 feet sideways well here to the completion point costs between 6 and 8 million dollars. Based on the average production of said wells the cost to pay for that well and be able to cash flow the preceding wells is around 80.00 per barrel. Some operators will be less and some more..just depends. In the Bakken in North Dakota it's real similiar, except for the production rates. North Dakota has better initial production rates AND there is another formation called the Sanish/Three forks that appears to be present where ever the Bakken is that is 200 feet uphole from the Bakken that they estimate holds as much and probably more than the Bakken and has similiar resevoir characteristics. Meaning that production is already behind pipe and no exploration or acquisition or lease hold expenses need be incurred to exzploit it. There have been enough completions in the Sanish/Three Forks to establish the validity of those claims. It is the ability to now drill, frac and produce shale formations that brought about our recernt boost in domestic production, but it's expensive compared to vertical sandstone drilling and production. North Dakota alone now has the reserves to affect GLOBAL OIL PRICES. That's what has finally brought the Saudis around. Years ago their target was 75.00 a barrel, even now that will be the magic number. That will not kill off all exploration like I said before, but what is happening now is good ol supply and demand in the oil industry that has happened since it began. The price hits a threshold that supports increased R & D or riskier exploration and discoveries are made or processes are invented and here we go again. The boom and bust cycle....once again. That , and with the Gov't owned foreign oil companies thrown in the mix and it can get strange. It's no wonder the average Joe thinks most oil companies are evil and manipulative. Oil is different from most industries as certain countries treat their reserves as a national security asset and that can also distort the market. Look at our ban on oil exports, if it's not repealed our domestic exploration industry will soon outpace demand and 80.00 oil will be a distant dream....When we firts got in the oil business in 1996 oil was trading between 17-20 per barrel. Two months after going all in as Marlin Oil we were selling oil for 8.75 per barrel. It was a rough two years and ones I would not like to repeat. It was touch and go, but we made it and learned a very valuable lesson-----"Don't nothin ever stay the same"....
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I had one of those on an AMC Matador Coupe with the 4.2 liter straight six. Once I hooked it up, I learned how to use it, but also found that to get the best fuel milage meant easing off the throttle going up the hills and getting the speed back on downhills. It meant great swings of speed in hilly country, not good if other cars were behind you... Other than that, the Matador felt like an extension of my body, more than any other car I've owned - out on the open road, that car and I were as one.